A Mongol Europe

In April of 1241 the armies of the Mongol empire decisively defeated the forces of Medieval Europe in both Poland and Hungary leaving the road to further conquest in Europe open, however the Mongol armies soon withdrew and many in Europe believed that they must have weakened the Mongol forces so badly that they withdrew to their holdings in Russia.  The truth of the matter was that the Great Khan Ogedei had died and the leader of the Mongol forces in Europe, Subutai was forced to withdraw until a new Khan was elected.  Despite this many historians have theorized that the Mongols did not want to advance into the European principalities as their tactics would not be effective or that the Mongols never intended to go any further into Europe and were simply dealing with a perceived threat to their territory in Russia. Both of these theories are simply just wrong as the Magyar peoples, who would become known Hungarians, had succeeded in conquering a huge area around the turn of the 9^th and 10^th centuries and Atila the Hun had crushed the Roman Empire in the mid-5^th century. The insistence that the Mongols would not have been able to deal with the heavily fortified Europe is also absurd as China possessed far larger and more sophisticated fortifications and were still defeated by the Mongols. The Mongols possessed a huge advantage over the Nobles and Kings of Europe and the only thing that saved them is the death of Ogedei Khan and the subsequent infighting among the decedents of Genghis Khan.  If Ogedei had not died what might have happened and how would Europe have been altered?

After his victory at the Battle of Mohi all of Europe was open for conquest by the Mongols and despite what some historians think conquering Europe would not have been very difficult for the Mongols to do. The Mongols had already begun setting up an administration in Hungary and had sent scouts throughout Europe; Subutai had begun preparing an invasion of the Holy Roman Empire and the first place that he would have looked to was the city of Vienna. The Mongol forces were highly mobile and Vienna was already close to Hungary so laying siege to the city would have been done very quickly and very effectively as the Mongols wars in China had given them some highly skilled siege engineers who unlike their European counterparts would actually build the siege equipment on site. The Mongols and Chinese used gunpowder weapons in various forms in their wars against each other but it is not known how many gunpowder weapons the Mongol army in Europe possessed and either way it was not an advantage the Mongols would truly need to win. One of the tactics of the Mongols was to force or impress people into their army and that is exactly what they would have done here, with Poland and Hungary decisively defeated they would have likely rounded up large numbers of men from the country and forced them to help lay siege to Vienna to be used as cannon fodder troops. This meant that when the Mongols army broke the walls of Vienna the defenders would be fighting Europeans not valuable and highly skilled Mongols but conquered eastern Europeans who had been promised their lives if they succeeded in taking the city. It might seem strange, as some might expect these impressed soldiers to turn on the Mongols but this is a tactic that the Mongols as well as many other armies had used many times before and it is not as though Europeans had any real qualms with fighting one another.  The Holy Roman Emperor could not have raised an army in time to try and relieve a Siege of Vienna and even if he had it any attempt to relieve the city would have been unsuccessful; I can say that without hesitation as the Hungarian army, which was much larger than the Mongol army was destroyed rather easily and with few casualties by the Mongols as was the European army in Poland. The problem for the Europeans is that the Mongol army was just so much better than anything they or anyone else for that matter had ever faced in terms of skill and tactics. The sack of Vienna would have been brutal as all Mongol sacks were; if Vienna did not surrender then the population would have been massacred and city itself utterly and completely destroyed. 

After the conquest of Vienna the Mongols could have moved into Italy or Germany and in both places the tactics would have been very similar. The Mongols could have gone in and simply defeated the European armies in Germany or Italy but the Mongols loved to use diplomacy to get others to do their fighting on top of their normal impressment of men into their army. If the Mongols moved into Italy they would have found that the Italian states were constantly feuding with one another and while they may have tried to band together to fight the Mongols the Mongols would have easily defeated any army that was sent against them or broken up any alliance by playing the various states, lords and republics against one another.  In fact the Mongols had already signed a secret treaty with the Venetians in 1221 and at the very least the Mongols would have pressed Venice for support from its impressive Navy to help them subjugate the rest of the Italian Peninsula; the only real interesting point would have been what happens with Rome? Pope Gregory IX died in August of 1241 and his successor Pope Celestine IV died soon after his election and the new pope was not elected until 1243 leaving a power vacuum that the Mongols could have exploited; installing a Pope of their own who had submitted to the Mongols and they could use to further their conquest. It’s possible that with this new Pope they could get Rome to submit without a siege but it really would have made no difference in terms of the campaign itself as Italy would likely have been subjugated with relative ease.

After this the Mongols could either move into the Holy Roman Empire or modern day France and in each the strategy would be the same as it was in Italy, divide and conquer. Let’s assume that Frederick II is still the Holy Roman Emperor and Louis IX is still the King of France, but the Mongols would have been spending this entire time trying to play these two kingdoms off of one another and do whatever they could to undermine them.  The minor fiefs and many different lords and Dukes of Europe would have been easy to exploit by the Mongols as some will capitulate without a fight and most would likely be concerned with trying to hold onto their own territory rather than helping their neighbors against the Mongols, some lords would likely ally with the Mongols in the hope of expanding their holdings. The fall of Europe would have happened and the only places that the Mongols would not have conquered were places where it might not have been worth it for them to launch an expedition to but it’s likely they would have subjugated anyone whom they viewed as a threat.  The real question is what would Europe have looked like after the conquest?

I was going to do this all in one post, but I think I will spread this out into two parts and in the next post I will take a look at what would happen after the conquest.